The global smartphone market is bracing for its steepest contraction in more than a decade. According to the research firm IDC, worldwide shipments are projected to decline by 12.9 % this year, falling to roughly 1.1 billion units – a slide that could reshape competitive dynamics across all segments.
Memory Shortages Drive Prices Higher
The downturn is largely driven by persistent shortages of memory chips and the resulting surge in component costs. Manufacturers are forced to raise retail prices, squeezing profit margins for smaller players while larger brands such as Apple and Samsung can absorb some pressure thanks to deeper pockets.
Impact on Entry‑Level Devices
Budget smartphones – the segment that makes up almost 30 % of global shipments – are hit hardest. IDC analysts warn that a sustained 12.9 % decline will make sub‑$100 devices economically unviable for many producers, potentially shrinking the market’s lower end.
Regional Variations
The fall is uneven across geographies: Africa and the Middle East could see a 20.6 % drop, while China may contract by 10.5 %. In contrast, Japan is expected to remain largely stable due to its domestic supply chain resilience.
Future Outlook
Experts anticipate a gradual rebound in 2027 and beyond, with shipments projected to rise by 2 % that year and 5.2 % in 2028, as memory prices normalize and new technologies emerge.
"The current memory crisis is not just a temporary hiccup – it’s reshaping the entire industry," said IDC spokesperson Ivan Petrov.