The New Reality of Global Competition

Geneva, Switzerland, January 14, 2026 — In a stark revelation that marks a turning point in international affairs, the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2026 has identified a fundamental shift in the global risk landscape. What once was secondary concern has now become paramount: geoeconomic confrontation has emerged as the number one global risk for the year 2026, surpassing all previous risks including climate change and extreme weather events.

Unprecedented Geoeconomic Tensions

The report reveals a troubling trend: 18% of respondents now view geoeconomic confrontation as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis in 2026, up from negligible levels in previous years. This represents a seismic shift in how the world perceives its most pressing challenges.

"A new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest. This shifting landscape, where cooperation looks markedly different than it did yesterday, reflects a pragmatic reality: collaborative approaches and the spirit of dialogue remain essential," said Børge Brende, President and CEO, World Economic Forum.

Børge Brende, President and CEO of the World Economic Forum, warned that while the outlook is deeply concerning, "none of these risks are a foregone conclusion." The challenges require not only recognition but active engagement and shared responsibility from all global stakeholders.

The Full Risk Spectrum

The two-year outlook reveals an even more concerning picture:state-based armed conflict follows geoeconomic confrontation in 2nd position, though it dropped to 5th position in the longer two-year timeframe. Meanwhile, economic risks show the largest collective increase in the two-year outlook:

  • Economic downturn has surged 8 positions to 11th place
  • Inflation has climbed to 21st position
  • Asset bubble burst has risen seven places to 18th position

When it comes to the geopolitical outlook, 68% of respondents expect a "multipolar or fragmented order" over the next decade, up four points from last year.

Technology, Societies and the Environment

The report's analysis extends beyond traditional geopolitical concerns to examine technology, societies, and environmental risks. The findings are sobering:

  • Misinformation and disinformation ranks 2nd on the two-year outlook
  • Cyber insecurity occupies 6th position
  • Societal polarization is ranked 4th in 2026 and 3rd by 2028
  • Inequality sits in 7th position in both 2-year and 10-year outlooks

Perhaps most alarming is the trajectory of adverse outcomes of AI, which climbed from 30th in the two-year horizon to 5th in the 10-year horizon, reflecting growing anxiety about implications for labour markets, societies and security.

A Turbulent Future

The outlook from leaders and experts is overwhelmingly negative: half of those surveyed anticipate a turbulent or stormy world over the next two years, a 14 percentage point increase from last year. A further 40% expect the two-year outlook to be unsettled at the very least, while only 9% predict stability and 1% predict calm.

"The Global Risks Report offers an early warning system as the age of competition compounds global risks — from geoeconomic confrontation to unchecked technology to rising debt — and changes our collective capacity to address them. But none of these risks are a foregone conclusion," said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum.

As Davos 2026 approaches and the world grapples with these mounting challenges, the World Economic Forum calls for pragmatic cooperation and renewed dialogue. The Annual Meeting will serve as a vital platform for understanding risks and opportunities and for building the bridges needed to address them.

As we move forward into 2026, one thing is clear: the era of easy cooperation is over. The world now faces an age of competition that compounds every existing risk. Yet, as the World Economic Forum reminds us, "collaborative approaches and the spirit of dialogue remain essential". The challenges are immense, but so is our collective capacity to shape what comes next.